· Analysis updated 01:02 UTC
CS U Craiova II vs Petrolul Hartiesti Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.74 expected goals for CS U Craiova II and 0.61 for Petrolul Hartiesti, a combined total of 4.35. That distribution gives CS U Craiova II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 91%, with the draw at 7%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 91% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
CS U Craiova II win
90.8% probability
Expected goals
3.74 – 0.61
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
CS U Craiova II home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CS U Craiova II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 91%, against 91% / 7% / 3% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.74 goals for CS U Craiova II and 0.61 for Petrolul Hartiesti, a combined 4.35 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 79% and both teams to score at 44%, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
97%
Double chance 12
94%
Double chance X2
9%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–011.3%
- 4–010.5%
- 2–09.0%
- 5–07.9%
- 3–16.9%
Recent form
CS U Craiova II
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Unirea Bascov · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Filiaşi · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrolul Hartiesti · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Oltul Curtişoara · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Academica Balș · 3-1 (W)
Petrolul Hartiesti
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs CS U Craiova II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Academica Balș · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Minerul Lupeni · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · CS U Craiova II 3-2 Petrolul Hartiesti (Liga III - Serie 6)
Liga III - Serie 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 25 |
| 2 | Minerul Lupeni | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 3 | CSM Targu Jiu | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| 4 | CS U Craiova II | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16 |
| 5 | Filiaşi | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Jiul Petroşani | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Oltul Curtişoara | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 8 | Vulturii Fărcăşeşti | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Unirea Bascov | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 10 | Păușești | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Academica Balș | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -4 | 7 |
| 12 | Petrolul Hartiesti | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | -32 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is CS U Craiova II win, at 90.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 91% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.