Stadionul Steaua · Analysis updated 15:33 UTC
CSA Steaua Bucureşti vs Chindia Targoviste Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.14 expected goals for CSA Steaua Bucureşti and 2.23 for Chindia Targoviste, a combined total of 3.37. That distribution gives Chindia Targoviste the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Chindia Targoviste win
61.9% probability
Expected goals
1.14 – 2.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
CSA Steaua Bucureşti home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chindia Targoviste away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chindia Targoviste to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 19% / 20% / 62% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.14 goals for CSA Steaua Bucureşti and 2.23 for Chindia Targoviste, a combined 3.37 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
38%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.8%
- 1–18.8%
- 0–28.6%
- 0–17.7%
- 1–37.2%
Recent form
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
- 2026-10-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Politehnica Timisoara · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Concordia · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Ştefăneşti · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Gloria Bistriţa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Bihor Oradea · 0-3 (L)
Chindia Targoviste
- 2026-08-21T14:30:00.000Z · H vs CS Dinamo București · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-18T14:30:00.000Z · A vs CSM Ramnicu Valcea · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-15T13:30:00.000Z · A vs CS Afumati · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Flacăra Moreni · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-09T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Metaloglobus · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga II table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Politehnica Timisoara | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 27 |
| 2 | Slatina | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 25 |
| 3 | Popești-Leordeni | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 24 |
| 4 | Chindia Targoviste | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 21 |
| 5 | Cetatea Suceava | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 21 |
| 6 | Metalul Buzău | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 7 | CSM Reşiţa | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 21 |
| 8 | Concordia | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 19 |
| 9 | FC Bacau | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 18 |
| 10 | Bihor Oradea | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 18 |
| 11 | Gloria Bistriţa | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 18 |
| 12 | CS Afumati | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 13 | Metaloglobus | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 14 | CSM Ramnicu Valcea | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | ASA Targu Mures | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 11 |
| 16 | Unirea Slobozia | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 17 | CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 18 | CS Dinamo București | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -16 | 7 |
| 19 | CSM Satu Mare | 10 | 0 | 6 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 20 | Viitorul Şelimbăr | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -13 | 6 |
| 21 | Ştefăneşti | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -19 | 6 |
| 22 | Dumbrăviţa | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -16 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Chindia Targoviste win, at 61.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.