Tersztyanszky Odon Sportkozpont · Analysis updated 15:04 UTC
Csakvar vs Kazincbarcikai Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Csakvar and 2.13 for Kazincbarcikai, a combined total of 3.31. That distribution gives Kazincbarcikai the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kazincbarcikai win
59.4% probability
Expected goals
1.17 – 2.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Csakvar home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Kazincbarcikai away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.8%
- 1–19.2%
- 0–28.4%
- 0–17.8%
- 1–37.0%
Recent form
Csakvar
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ajka · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gyirmot SE · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Szeged 2011 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Soroksar · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-08-23T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Kazincbarcikai · 0-2 (L)
Kazincbarcikai
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Mezokovesd-zsory · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Paks · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kecskeméti TE · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-31T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Szeged 2011 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Csakvar · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T15:30:00.000Z · Csakvar 0-2 Kazincbarcikai (NB II)
- 2025-02-09T13:00:00.000Z · Csakvar 0-2 Kazincbarcikai (NB II)
- 2024-07-28T17:00:00.000Z · Csakvar 3-2 Kazincbarcikai (NB II)
- 2024-03-31T15:00:00.000Z · Csakvar 1-1 Kazincbarcikai (NB II)
- 2023-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · Csakvar 0-0 Kazincbarcikai (NB II)
- 2023-03-05T13:00:00.000Z · Csakvar 1-3 Kazincbarcikai (NB II)
- 2022-09-04T15:00:00.000Z · Csakvar 0-2 Kazincbarcikai (NB II)
- 2022-07-24T14:00:00.000Z · Csakvar 3-0 Kazincbarcikai (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2021-04-04T15:00:00.000Z · Csakvar 4-1 Kazincbarcikai (NB II)
NB II table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Soroksar | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 20 |
| 2 | Kecskeméti TE | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Tiszakecske FC | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 19 |
| 4 | Kazincbarcikai | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | Gyirmot SE | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | Ajka | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Mezokovesd-zsory | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Fehérvár FC | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 12 |
| 9 | Karcag SE | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Szentlőrinc SE | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 11 | Diosgyori VTK | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 12 | Nagykanizsai ULE | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 9 |
| 13 | BVSC | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Szeged 2011 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Csakvar | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -12 | 4 |
| 16 | Kozarmisleny FC | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -12 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kazincbarcikai win, at 59.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.