· Analysis updated 13:45 UTC
Csepel vs Debreceni VSC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Csepel and 1.75 for Debreceni VSC, a combined total of 4.25. That distribution gives Csepel the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Csepel win
54.3% probability
Expected goals
2.50 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Csepel home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Debreceni VSC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Csepel to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 19% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for Csepel and 1.75 for Debreceni VSC, a combined 4.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.8%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.5%
- 1–16.2%
- 3–25.7%
Recent form
Csepel
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Dabas · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Szeged-Csanád II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Vasas II · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Villány · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bekescsaba 1912 · 2-2 (D)
Debreceni VSC
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Vasas · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gödöllő · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Paks · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs MTK Budapest · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-23T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Kisvarda FC · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Csepel win, at 54.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.