· Analysis updated 14:39 UTC
Csepel vs III. Kerületi TUE Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.47 expected goals for Csepel and 1.03 for III. Kerületi TUE, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Csepel the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Csepel win
47.5% probability
Expected goals
1.47 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Csepel home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
III. Kerületi TUE away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Csepel to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 26% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.47 goals for Csepel and 1.03 for III. Kerületi TUE, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 1–012.1%
- 2–19.2%
- 2–08.9%
- 0–18.4%
Recent form
Csepel
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Dabas · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Szeged-Csanád II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Vasas II · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Villány · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bekescsaba 1912 · 2-2 (D)
III. Kerületi TUE
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Gyulai Termál · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Újpest II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Szolnoki MAV FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Honvéd II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Szegedi VSE · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NB III - Southeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gyulai Termál | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 39 |
| 2 | ESMTK | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 27 |
| 3 | III. Kerületi TUE | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 26 |
| 4 | Szeged-Csanád II | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 5 | Csepel | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
| 6 | Vasas II | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 19 |
| 7 | Újpest II | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 19 |
| 8 | Monori Se | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 9 | Dabas | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -12 | 15 |
| 10 | Bekescsaba 1912 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 | Szolnoki MAV FC | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 12 | Honvéd II | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 12 |
| 13 | Sándorfalva | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -22 | 11 |
| 14 | Hódmezővásárhely | 13 | 1 | 6 | 6 | -12 | 9 |
| 15 | BKV Előre | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -28 | 8 |
| 16 | Szegedi VSE | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -21 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Csepel win, at 47.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.