Stadionul Orasenesc · Analysis updated 14:39 UTC
CSF Bălți vs Zimbru Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for CSF Bălți and 2.63 for Zimbru, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives Zimbru the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Zimbru win
70.5% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 2.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
CSF Bălți home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Zimbru away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zimbru to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 13% / 16% / 71% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for CSF Bălți and 2.63 for Zimbru, a combined 3.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
30%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.2%
- 0–28.5%
- 1–38.0%
- 0–37.5%
- 1–17.0%
Recent form
CSF Bălți
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheriff Tiraspol · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dacia-Buiucani · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Milsami Orhei · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Petrocub · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Zimbru · 0-4 (L)
Zimbru
- 2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Bukovyna · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dacia-Buiucani · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Politehnica UTM · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sireți · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sheriff Tiraspol · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 22 | 28 |
| 2 | Zimbru | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 26 |
| 3 | Petrocub | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 24 |
| 4 | Dacia-Buiucani | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 20 |
| 5 | Milsami Orhei | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 17 |
| 6 | Politehnica UTM | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | Sireți | 13 | 0 | 7 | 6 | -11 | 7 |
| 8 | CSF Bălți | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | -33 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Zimbru win, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.