Stadionul Municipal · Referee Horia Gabriel Mladinovici, Romania · Analysis updated 15:40 UTC
Csikszereda vs CFR 1907 Cluj Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.92 expected goals for Csikszereda and 1.33 for CFR 1907 Cluj, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives CFR 1907 Cluj the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
CFR 1907 Cluj win
46.2% probability
Expected goals
0.92 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Csikszereda home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
CFR 1907 Cluj away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CFR 1907 Cluj to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 26% / 28% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.92 goals for Csikszereda and 1.33 for CFR 1907 Cluj, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.0%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–010.5%
- 1–09.7%
- 0–29.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 55.8% vs market 46.4%, edge +9.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.00 | 46.4% | 55.8% | 1.79 | +9.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.80 | 52.3% | 53.9% | 1.86 | +1.6 |
| Match result | Away | 2.00 | 45.9% | 46.2% | 2.16 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.8% | 28.0% | 3.57 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 3.50 | 26.2% | 25.9% | 3.86 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.4% | 72.1% | 1.39 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.25 | 75.3% | 74.2% | 1.35 | -1.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.73 | 53.6% | 44.2% | 2.26 | -9.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Csikszereda
- 2026-09-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Petrolul Ploiesti · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Bucuresti · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Uta Arad · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Gloria Bistriţa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · H vs CFR 1907 Cluj · 2-3 (L)
CFR 1907 Cluj
- 2026-10-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Arges Pitesti · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-08T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Universitatea Cluj · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-01T12:00:00.000Z · H vs CSM Satu Mare · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Botosani · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · Csikszereda 2-3 CFR 1907 Cluj (Liga I)
- 2025-12-12T18:30:00.000Z · Csikszereda 1-3 CFR 1907 Cluj (Liga I)
- 2025-10-16T17:30:00.000Z · Csikszereda 2-2 CFR 1907 Cluj (Liga I)
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 29 |
| 2 | Rapid | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 27 |
| 3 | Universitatea Craiova | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 26 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 20 |
| 5 | Universitatea Cluj | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 19 |
| 6 | FCSB | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 18 |
| 7 | Farul Constanta | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 17 |
| 8 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 9 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 16 |
| 10 | Uta Arad | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 15 |
| 11 | FC Botosani | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 12 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 14 |
| 13 | Arges Pitesti | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | Oţelul | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | FC Voluntari | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -15 | 8 |
| 16 | Csikszereda | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -18 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is CFR 1907 Cluj win, at 46.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.