CSKA 1948 vs Cherno More Varna Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for CSKA 1948 and 0.90 for Cherno More Varna, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives CSKA 1948 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

CSKA 1948 win

59.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.83 – 0.90

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

CSKA 1948 home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cherno More Varna away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CSKA 1948 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 23% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for CSKA 1948 and 0.90 for Cherno More Varna, a combined 2.72 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

CSKA 1948 win59%

Draw23%

Cherno More Varna win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

41%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–012.0%
2–010.9%
1–110.8%
2–19.8%
3–06.6%

Recent form

CSKA 1948

2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Sofia · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunav Ruse · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Levski Sofia · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-28T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Septemvri Sofia · 0-1 (L)

Cherno More Varna

2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ludogorets · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunav Ruse · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Arda Kardzhali · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv Sofia · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

First League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Levski Sofia	9	8	1	0	17	25
2	CSKA Sofia	10	7	3	0	17	24
3	Ludogorets	9	7	2	0	9	23
4	CSKA 1948	10	7	1	2	9	22
5	Arda Kardzhali	10	5	2	3	3	17
6	Botev Plovdiv	10	5	1	4	2	16
7	Slavia Sofia	10	2	5	3	1	11
8	Spartak Varna	10	2	4	4	-5	10
9	Botev Vratsa	10	2	3	5	-10	9
10	Septemvri Sofia	10	2	2	6	-10	8
11	Lokomotiv Sofia	10	1	4	5	-7	7
12	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	10	2	1	7	-8	7
13	Cherno More Varna	10	1	3	6	-9	6
14	Dunav Ruse	10	1	2	7	-9	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is CSKA 1948 win, at 59.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.