Bistritsa Stadium · Referee Lyuboslav Lyubomirov, Bulgaria · Analysis updated 15:38 UTC
CSKA 1948 vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for CSKA 1948 and 0.78 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives CSKA 1948 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
CSKA 1948 win
64.0% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
CSKA 1948 home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CSKA 1948 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 21% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for CSKA 1948 and 0.78 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 46%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.1%
- 2–012.4%
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.6%
- 3–07.9%
Recent form
CSKA 1948
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Sofia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunav Ruse · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Levski Sofia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Septemvri Sofia · 0-1 (L)
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 25 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 24 |
| 3 | Ludogorets | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 23 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 22 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | Slavia Sofia | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 9 |
| 10 | Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 8 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 7 |
| 13 | Cherno More Varna | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is CSKA 1948 win, at 64.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.