VEB Arena · Referee Kirill Levnikov, Russia · Analysis updated 19:31 UTC
CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for CSKA Moscow and 0.70 for Lokomotiv, a combined total of 1.83. That distribution gives CSKA Moscow the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
CSKA Moscow win
45.7% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
CSKA Moscow home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lokomotiv away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.1%
- 0–016.1%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–111.3%
- 2–010.2%
Recent form
CSKA Moscow
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Rodina Moskva · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal Tula · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Nizhny Novgorod · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Makhachkala · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Rubin · 1-1 (D)
Lokomotiv
- 2026-10-13T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Akron · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Fakel · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T08:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Orenburg · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal Tula · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Krylia Sovetov · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T17:15:00.000Z · CSKA Moscow 3-2 Lokomotiv (Premier League)
- 2026-08-04T17:45:00.000Z · CSKA Moscow 1-1 Lokomotiv (Cup)
- 2026-07-14T14:00:00.000Z · CSKA Moscow 0-1 Lokomotiv (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-05-17T15:00:00.000Z · CSKA Moscow 3-1 Lokomotiv (Premier League)
- 2026-02-21T13:00:00.000Z · CSKA Moscow 3-2 Lokomotiv (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-10-18T16:45:00.000Z · CSKA Moscow 0-3 Lokomotiv (Premier League)
- 2025-10-01T17:30:00.000Z · CSKA Moscow 0-0 Lokomotiv (Cup)
- 2025-07-30T15:30:00.000Z · CSKA Moscow 2-1 Lokomotiv (Cup)
- 2025-05-19T17:30:00.000Z · CSKA Moscow 2-2 Lokomotiv (Premier League)
- 2024-08-18T14:30:00.000Z · CSKA Moscow 0-1 Lokomotiv (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dynamo | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 25 |
| 2 | Zenit | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 24 |
| 3 | FC Krasnodar | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 23 |
| 4 | Spartak Moscow | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 23 |
| 5 | CSKA Moscow | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 22 |
| 6 | FC Orenburg | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | Krylia Sovetov | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 8 | Baltika | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 13 |
| 10 | FC Rostov | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 11 | Rubin | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 12 | Akron | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 11 |
| 14 | Akhmat | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 | Rodina Moskva | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 9 |
| 16 | Fakel | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is CSKA Moscow win, at 45.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.