CSKA Sofia vs Derry City Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for CSKA Sofia and 1.18 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives CSKA Sofia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

CSKA Sofia or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

CSKA Sofia win44%

Draw26%

Derry City win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

CSKA Sofia home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Derry City away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CSKA Sofia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for CSKA Sofia and 1.18 for Derry City, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

CSKA Sofia

2026-08-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Tel Aviv · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-09T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Septemvri Sofia · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Tel Aviv · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-02T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Dunav Ruse · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Qarabag · 0-0 (D)

Derry City

2026-08-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs UCD · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-07T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Sligo Rovers · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs St Patrick's Athl. · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-30T17:30:00.000Z · H vs HNK Rijeka · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-23T18:45:00.000Z · A vs HNK Rijeka · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-07-16T17:30:00.000Z · CSKA Sofia 2-1 Derry City (UEFA Europa League)
2026-07-09T18:00:00.000Z · CSKA Sofia 3-2 Derry City (UEFA Europa League)

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.