Balgarska Armiya Stadium · Referee Marijan Grebencharski · Analysis updated 01:36 UTC
CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for CSKA Sofia and 1.55 for Ludogorets, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives CSKA Sofia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
CSKA Sofia win
45.0% probability
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
CSKA Sofia home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CSKA Sofia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 22% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for CSKA Sofia and 1.55 for Ludogorets, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 66% and both teams to score at 66%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.6%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–06.2%
Recent form
CSKA Sofia
- 2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · A vs FC Nordsjaelland · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Nesebar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Monaco · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA 1948 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv · 1-1 (D)
Ludogorets
- 2026-10-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Arda Kardzhali · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cherno More Varna · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs CSM Ramnicu Valcea · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Septemvri Sofia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Sofia · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 28 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 27 |
| 3 | Ludogorets | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 26 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 25 |
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 17 |
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -6 | 13 |
| 8 | Slavia Sofia | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Dunav Ruse | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -6 | 11 |
| 10 | Botev Vratsa | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -11 | 10 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Septemvri Sofia | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Cherno More Varna | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is CSKA Sofia win, at 45.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.