CSKA Sofia vs Monaco Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for CSKA Sofia and 1.41 for Monaco, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives CSKA Sofia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.7% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.62 – 1.41

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

CSKA Sofia home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Monaco away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CSKA Sofia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 24% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for CSKA Sofia and 1.41 for Monaco, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

CSKA Sofia win43%

Draw24%

Monaco win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

1–111.0%
2–18.9%
1–07.8%
1–27.8%
0–16.8%

Recent form

CSKA Sofia

2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA 1948 · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-20T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Sofia · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Arda Kardzhali · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-09T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Levski Sofia · 4-2 (W)

Monaco

2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Toulouse · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Pisa · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lens · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Strasbourg · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-04T19:05:00.000Z · A vs Paris Saint Germain · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.