· Analysis updated 12:54 UTC
CSM Adjud vs Aerostar Bacau Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for CSM Adjud and 1.20 for Aerostar Bacau, a combined total of 3.19. That distribution gives CSM Adjud the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
CSM Adjud win
55.4% probability
Expected goals
1.98 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
CSM Adjud home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aerostar Bacau away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CSM Adjud to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 22% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.98 goals for CSM Adjud and 1.20 for Aerostar Bacau, a combined 3.19 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–08.2%
- 2–08.1%
- 3–16.5%
Recent form
CSM Adjud
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Bacău II · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs USV Iaşi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Viitorul Onesti · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Târgu Secuiesc · 2-2 (D)
Aerostar Bacau
- 2026-08-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Viitorul Onesti · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs CSM FC Vaslui · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bucovina Rădăuţi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Odorheiu Secuiesc · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-05-01T15:00:00.000Z · H vs CSM FC Vaslui · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSM FC Vaslui | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 26 |
| 2 | Târgu Secuiesc | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 20 |
| 3 | CSM Adjud | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 18 |
| 4 | USV Iaşi | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Bradul Putna | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 17 |
| 6 | Aerostar Bacau | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Odorheiu Secuiesc | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | FC Bacău II | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 14 |
| 9 | Gheorgheni | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 10 | Viitorul Onesti | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 6 |
| 11 | Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | -16 | 4 |
| 12 | Paşcani | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -16 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is CSM Adjud win, at 55.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.