· Analysis updated 12:19 UTC
CSM FC Vaslui vs Aerostar Bacau Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.33 expected goals for CSM FC Vaslui and 1.20 for Aerostar Bacau, a combined total of 3.54. That distribution gives CSM FC Vaslui the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
CSM FC Vaslui win
62.5% probability
Expected goals
2.33 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
CSM FC Vaslui home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aerostar Bacau away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.5%
- 1–18.2%
- 2–07.9%
- 3–17.4%
- 1–06.8%
Recent form
CSM FC Vaslui
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Gheorgheni · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs CSM Adjud · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Bacău II · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs USV Iaşi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Viitorul Onesti · 3-1 (W)
Aerostar Bacau
- 2026-08-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Viitorul Onesti · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs CSM FC Vaslui · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bucovina Rădăuţi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Odorheiu Secuiesc · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-05-01T15:00:00.000Z · H vs CSM FC Vaslui · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · CSM FC Vaslui 3-0 Aerostar Bacau (Liga III - Serie 1)
- 2026-07-29T14:30:00.000Z · CSM FC Vaslui 1-3 Aerostar Bacau (Cupa României)
- 2026-05-01T15:00:00.000Z · CSM FC Vaslui 0-3 Aerostar Bacau (Liga III - Serie 1)
- 2026-03-07T13:00:00.000Z · CSM FC Vaslui 1-0 Aerostar Bacau (Liga III - Serie 1)
- 2025-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · CSM FC Vaslui 1-1 Aerostar Bacau (Liga III - Serie 1)
- 2024-05-11T15:00:00.000Z · CSM FC Vaslui 3-0 Aerostar Bacau (Liga III - Serie 1)
- 2024-04-12T14:00:00.000Z · CSM FC Vaslui 2-0 Aerostar Bacau (Liga III - Serie 1)
- 2023-10-28T12:00:00.000Z · CSM FC Vaslui 0-0 Aerostar Bacau (Liga III - Serie 1)
- 2023-08-25T15:00:00.000Z · CSM FC Vaslui 2-1 Aerostar Bacau (Liga III - Serie 1)
Liga III - Serie 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSM FC Vaslui | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 26 |
| 2 | Târgu Secuiesc | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 20 |
| 3 | CSM Adjud | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 18 |
| 4 | USV Iaşi | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Bradul Putna | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 17 |
| 6 | Aerostar Bacau | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Odorheiu Secuiesc | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | FC Bacău II | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 14 |
| 9 | Gheorgheni | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 10 | Viitorul Onesti | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 6 |
| 11 | Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | -16 | 4 |
| 12 | Paşcani | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -16 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is CSM FC Vaslui win, at 62.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.