· Analysis updated 07:03 UTC
CSM FC Vaslui vs Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.20 expected goals for CSM FC Vaslui and 0.63 for Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives CSM FC Vaslui the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
CSM FC Vaslui win
73.5% probability
Expected goals
2.20 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
CSM FC Vaslui home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CSM FC Vaslui to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 17% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.20 goals for CSM FC Vaslui and 0.63 for Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–014.4%
- 1–013.0%
- 3–010.5%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–18.2%
Recent form
CSM FC Vaslui
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Paşcani · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Aerostar Bacau · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Odorheiu Secuiesc · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bradul Putna · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Aerostar Bacau · 1-3 (L)
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs CSM Adjud · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Aerostar Bacau · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Bacău II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Odorheiu Secuiesc · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs USV Iaşi · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSM FC Vaslui | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 25 |
| 2 | CSM Adjud | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 17 |
| 3 | Târgu Secuiesc | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 4 | USV Iaşi | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | Bradul Putna | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | Odorheiu Secuiesc | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Aerostar Bacau | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | FC Bacău II | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 11 |
| 9 | Gheorgheni | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Viitorul Onesti | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 5 |
| 11 | Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | -14 | 4 |
| 12 | Paşcani | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -16 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is CSM FC Vaslui win, at 73.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.