· Analysis updated 04:53 UTC
CSM Ramnicu Valcea vs Chindia Targoviste Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for CSM Ramnicu Valcea and 1.68 for Chindia Targoviste, a combined total of 2.98. That distribution gives Chindia Targoviste the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Chindia Targoviste win
46.4% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
CSM Ramnicu Valcea home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chindia Targoviste away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chindia Targoviste to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 30% / 24% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for CSM Ramnicu Valcea and 1.68 for Chindia Targoviste, a combined 2.98 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–18.6%
- 2–17.2%
- 0–27.2%
Recent form
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
- 2026-10-17T09:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Politehnica Timisoara · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Gloria Bistriţa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ludogorets · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Bihor Oradea · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Cetatea Suceava · 0-4 (L)
Chindia Targoviste
- 2026-10-25T09:00:00.000Z · H vs CSM Satu Mare · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs ASA Targu Mures · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Concordia · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrolul Ploiesti · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Unirea Slobozia · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-18T14:30:00.000Z · CSM Ramnicu Valcea 1-1 Chindia Targoviste (Cupa României)
- 2017-03-11T09:00:00.000Z · CSM Ramnicu Valcea 0-3 Chindia Targoviste (Liga II)
- 2016-09-03T13:30:00.000Z · CSM Ramnicu Valcea 0-3 Chindia Targoviste (Liga II)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Chindia Targoviste win, at 46.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.