Stadionul Municipal · Analysis updated 13:17 UTC
CSM Ramnicu Valcea vs CS Afumati Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for CSM Ramnicu Valcea and 1.73 for CS Afumati, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives CS Afumati the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
CS Afumati win
48.0% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
CSM Ramnicu Valcea home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
CS Afumati away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CS Afumati to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 28% / 24% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for CSM Ramnicu Valcea and 1.73 for CS Afumati, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–18.6%
- 0–27.4%
- 2–17.0%
Recent form
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
- 2026-10-10T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Gloria Bistriţa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ludogorets · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Bihor Oradea · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Cetatea Suceava · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T08:00:00.000Z · H vs CSM Reşiţa · 1-2 (L)
CS Afumati
- 2026-10-02T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Petrolul Ploiesti · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · A vs CSM Satu Mare · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T08:00:00.000Z · H vs ASA Targu Mures · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Concordia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Unirea Slobozia · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2017-05-06T08:00:00.000Z · CSM Ramnicu Valcea 0-3 CS Afumati (Liga II)
- 2016-10-30T09:00:00.000Z · CSM Ramnicu Valcea 1-3 CS Afumati (Liga II)
Liga II table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slatina | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 22 |
| 2 | FC Politehnica Timisoara | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 21 |
| 3 | CSM Reşiţa | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | FC Bacau | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 15 |
| 5 | Chindia Targoviste | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 15 |
| 6 | Popești-Leordeni | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | Concordia | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 8 | Metalul Buzău | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | CS Afumati | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | Cetatea Suceava | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 11 | Gloria Bistriţa | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 12 |
| 12 | Metaloglobus | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | ASA Targu Mures | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 | CSM Ramnicu Valcea | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 15 | Bihor Oradea | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 16 | Viitorul Şelimbăr | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 | Ştefăneşti | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
| 19 | Unirea Slobozia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 4 |
| 20 | CSM Satu Mare | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 21 | Dumbrăviţa | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -11 | 3 |
| 22 | CS Dinamo București | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -18 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is CS Afumati win, at 48.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.