Estádio Justiniano de Melo e Silva · Analysis updated 06:36 UTC
CTE Colatina vs São Mateus Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.13 expected goals for CTE Colatina and 2.60 for São Mateus, a combined total of 5.73. That distribution gives CTE Colatina the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 92% for over 2.5 goals and 88% for both teams to score, with 3–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
CTE Colatina win
50.0% probability
Expected goals
3.13 – 2.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
CTE Colatina home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CTE Colatina to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 17% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.13 goals for CTE Colatina and 2.60 for São Mateus, a combined 5.73 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 92% and both teams to score at 88%, with 3–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–25.6%
- 2–25.4%
- 3–34.9%
- 2–34.7%
- 4–24.4%
Recent form
CTE Colatina
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Linhares · 0-9 (L)
- 2026-08-18T22:45:00.000Z · H vs Audax São Mateus · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs GEL · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Doze · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-05T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Linhares · 0-2 (L)
São Mateus
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Capixaba B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estrela do Norte | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 22 |
| 2 | Linhares | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 18 |
| 3 | Rive | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 |
| 4 | Audax São Mateus | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 |
| 5 | GEL | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Doze | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 7 | Tupy | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | Sport Brasil ES | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | CTE Colatina | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -28 | 1 |
| 10 | Pinheiros | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -22 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is CTE Colatina win, at 50.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 88% and over 2.5 goals at 92%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.