· Analysis updated 13:13 UTC
Cuarte vs Atlético Monzón Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Cuarte and 0.98 for Atlético Monzón, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Cuarte the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.5% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atlético Monzón away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cuarte to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 28% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Cuarte and 0.98 for Atlético Monzón, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.3%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–010.0%
- 0–19.8%
- 2–08.8%
Recent form
Cuarte
Atlético Monzón
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Zaragoza II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Huesca II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Almudévar · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fraga · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Robres · 4-3 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-07T18:00:00.000Z · Cuarte 0-1 Atlético Monzón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 17)
- 2026-05-30T18:30:00.000Z · Cuarte 2-0 Atlético Monzón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 17)
- 2026-05-10T15:30:00.000Z · Cuarte 1-1 Atlético Monzón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 17)
- 2026-01-11T11:00:00.000Z · Cuarte 2-0 Atlético Monzón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 17)
- 2025-05-25T10:00:00.000Z · Cuarte 2-3 Atlético Monzón (Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs)
- 2025-05-18T16:00:00.000Z · Cuarte 0-1 Atlético Monzón (Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs)
- 2025-05-04T15:00:00.000Z · Cuarte 3-2 Atlético Monzón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 17)
- 2025-01-05T11:00:00.000Z · Cuarte 1-0 Atlético Monzón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 17)
- 2024-01-28T11:00:00.000Z · Cuarte 2-0 Atlético Monzón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 17)
- 2023-09-10T16:00:00.000Z · Cuarte 1-0 Atlético Monzón (Tercera División RFEF - Group 17)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Zaragoza II | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Ejea | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 3 | Brea | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | Fraga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 5 | Cuarte | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Épila | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Atlético Monzón | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 10 |
| 8 | Caspe | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 9 | Almudévar | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Binéfar | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | Huesca II | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | La Almunia | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Illueca | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | CDJ Tamarite | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | CD Sietamo | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Andorra CF | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 17 | Belchite 97 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 2 |
| 18 | Robres | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.