· Analysis updated 16:21 UTC
Cuarte vs CD Sietamo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Cuarte and 1.14 for CD Sietamo, a combined total of 3.39. That distribution gives Cuarte the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cuarte win
62.3% probability
Expected goals
2.25 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cuarte to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 19% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for Cuarte and 1.14 for CD Sietamo, a combined 3.39 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 66% and both teams to score at 61%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 62% with moderate confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 1–18.7%
- 2–08.5%
- 1–07.6%
- 3–17.3%
Recent form
Cuarte
CD Sietamo
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ejea · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Brea · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Cuarte · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Épila · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Zaragoza II | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Ejea | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 3 | Brea | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | Fraga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 5 | Cuarte | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Épila | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Atlético Monzón | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 10 |
| 8 | Caspe | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 9 | Almudévar | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Binéfar | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | Huesca II | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | La Almunia | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Illueca | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | CDJ Tamarite | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | CD Sietamo | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Andorra CF | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 17 | Belchite 97 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 2 |
| 18 | Robres | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cuarte win, at 62.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.