· Analysis updated 15:43 UTC
Cuba vs Grenada Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.09 expected goals for Cuba and 1.13 for Grenada, a combined total of 4.21. That distribution gives Cuba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Cuba win
76.2% probability
Expected goals
3.09 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cuba to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 76% / 13% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.09 goals for Cuba and 1.13 for Grenada, a combined 4.21 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 79% and both teams to score at 64%, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 76% with high confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
24%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–18.2%
- 2–17.9%
- 3–07.3%
- 2–07.1%
- 4–16.3%
Recent form
Cuba
- 2026-10-02T21:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Kitts and Nevis · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-28T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Bonaire · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Grenada · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-03-29T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Dominican Republic · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-26T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Martinique · 2-2 (D)
Grenada
- 2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rep. Of Ireland · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-03-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kenya · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-03-27T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Rwanda · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-01-18T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Jamaica · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-11-15T00:00:00.000Z · H vs US Virgin Islands · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
CONCACAF Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guyana | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 12 |
| 2 | Montserrat | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 3 | St. Vincent / Grenadines | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12 |
| 4 | Curaçao | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 5 | Barbados | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 6 | Saint Martin | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 9 |
| 7 | Antigua and Barbuda | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 |
| 8 | St. Lucia | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 9 | Puerto Rico | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 10 | Haiti | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 11 | Aruba | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | French Guyana | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 13 | Dominican Republic | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 14 | US Virgin Islands | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 15 | Cuba | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 |
| 16 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| 17 | Guatemala | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 18 | Jamaica | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 19 | Suriname | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 20 | Costa Rica | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 21 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 22 | Honduras | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 23 | Martinique | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 24 | Guadeloupe | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 25 | El Salvador | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 4 |
| 26 | Bonaire | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 27 | Belize | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 28 | Grenada | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 3 |
| 29 | Trinidad and Tobago | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 30 | Cayman Islands | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 31 | Dominica | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -13 | 1 |
| 32 | Bermuda | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 0 |
| 33 | Sint Maarten | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 0 |
| 34 | Nicaragua | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
| 35 | Anguilla | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -11 | 0 |
| 36 | British Virgin Islands | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -11 | 0 |
| 37 | Bahamas | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -17 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cuba win, at 76.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.