Brazil · Serie B · Matchweek 3321:30

0 – 1

Sunday, 11 October 2026

Arena Pantanal · Referee Afro Rocha De Carvalho Filho, Brazil · Analysis updated 14:47 UTC

Cuiaba vs Avai Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Cuiaba and 0.83 for Avai, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Cuiaba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Cuiaba win

54.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.55 – 0.83

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Cuiaba home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Avai away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Cuiaba win55%

Draw26%

Avai win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

1–014.4%
1–111.9%
2–011.2%
0–09.3%
2–19.2%

Recent form

Cuiaba

2026-10-11T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Avai · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-07T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Vila Nova · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Ponte Preta · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-27T19:00:00.000Z · A vs CRB · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-22T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Nautico Recife · 3-0 (W)

Avai

2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Londrina · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ceara · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Criciuma · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Goias · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-15T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Vila Nova · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-10-11T21:30:00.000Z · Cuiaba 0-1 Avai (Serie B)
2026-06-21T14:00:00.000Z · Cuiaba 0-1 Avai (Serie B)
2025-08-10T19:00:00.000Z · Cuiaba 0-2 Avai (Serie B)
2025-04-11T00:30:00.000Z · Cuiaba 2-2 Avai (Serie B)
2022-10-27T23:00:00.000Z · Cuiaba 1-0 Avai (Serie A)
2022-07-03T14:00:00.000Z · Cuiaba 2-1 Avai (Serie A)
2020-11-28T01:30:00.000Z · Cuiaba 2-1 Avai (Serie B)
2020-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · Cuiaba 2-0 Avai (Serie B)

Serie B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vila Nova	33	18	7	8	15	61
2	Novorizontino	33	17	9	7	31	60
3	Juventude	33	17	9	7	18	60
4	Fortaleza EC	33	15	12	6	10	57
5	Criciuma	33	16	8	9	6	56
6	Atletico Goianiense	33	14	11	8	10	53
7	CRB	33	15	7	11	4	52
8	Sport Recife	33	13	12	8	10	51
9	Goias	33	14	6	13	-6	48
10	Operario-PR	33	13	9	11	-1	48
11	Cuiaba	33	11	14	8	6	47
12	São Bernardo	33	12	10	11	10	46
13	Athletic Club	33	10	13	10	1	43
14	Nautico Recife	33	11	9	13	-3	42
15	Ceara	33	11	9	13	-5	42
16	Botafogo SP	33	11	8	14	-1	41
17	Avai	33	10	6	17	-10	36
18	Londrina	33	7	8	18	-7	29
19	America Mineiro	33	4	5	24	-33	17
20	Ponte Preta	33	3	4	26	-55	13

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Cuiaba win, at 54.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.