Arena Pantanal · Referee R. Junior · Analysis updated 14:35 UTC
Cuiaba vs Nautico Recife Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.19 expected goals for Cuiaba and 0.76 for Nautico Recife, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Cuiaba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cuiaba win
46.1% probability
Expected goals
1.19 – 0.76
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cuiaba home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nautico Recife away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.9%
- 0–014.2%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–110.8%
- 2–010.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.80 (model 63.0% vs market 51.5%, edge +11.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.80 | 51.5% | 63.0% | 1.59 | +11.5 |
| Match result | Home | 2.00 | 45.6% | 46.1% | 2.17 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.75 | 53.6% | 53.9% | 1.86 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.35 | 69.5% | 69.7% | 1.43 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.00 | 30.4% | 30.3% | 3.30 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 3.80 | 24.0% | 23.6% | 4.24 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.22 | 76.9% | 76.4% | 1.31 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.91 | 48.5% | 37.0% | 2.70 | -11.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Cuiaba
- 2026-10-11T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Avai · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-07T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Vila Nova · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Ponte Preta · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T19:00:00.000Z · A vs CRB · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-22T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Nautico Recife · 3-0 (W)
Nautico Recife
- 2026-10-03T00:35:00.000Z · A vs Fortaleza EC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Sport Recife · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Cuiaba · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Operario-PR · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-09T23:30:00.000Z · A vs America Mineiro · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-22T00:30:00.000Z · Cuiaba 3-0 Nautico Recife (Serie B)
- 2026-05-22T22:00:00.000Z · Cuiaba 0-1 Nautico Recife (Serie B)
- 2020-12-23T00:30:00.000Z · Cuiaba 0-2 Nautico Recife (Serie B)
- 2020-09-30T01:30:00.000Z · Cuiaba 1-0 Nautico Recife (Serie B)
- 2018-03-15T00:45:00.000Z · Cuiaba 0-1 Nautico Recife (Copa Do Brasil)
- 2018-02-28T22:30:00.000Z · Cuiaba 1-2 Nautico Recife (Copa Do Brasil)
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 33 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 61 |
| 2 | Novorizontino | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 31 | 60 |
| 3 | Juventude | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 60 |
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 33 | 15 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 57 |
| 5 | Criciuma | 33 | 16 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 56 |
| 6 | Atletico Goianiense | 33 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 53 |
| 7 | CRB | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 4 | 52 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 33 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 51 |
| 9 | Goias | 33 | 14 | 6 | 13 | -6 | 48 |
| 10 | Operario-PR | 33 | 13 | 9 | 11 | -1 | 48 |
| 11 | Cuiaba | 33 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 47 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 46 |
| 13 | Athletic Club | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 1 | 43 |
| 14 | Nautico Recife | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | -3 | 42 |
| 15 | Ceara | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | -5 | 42 |
| 16 | Botafogo SP | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | -1 | 41 |
| 17 | Avai | 33 | 10 | 6 | 17 | -10 | 36 |
| 18 | Londrina | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | -7 | 29 |
| 19 | America Mineiro | 33 | 4 | 5 | 24 | -33 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 33 | 3 | 4 | 26 | -55 | 13 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cuiaba win, at 46.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.