Arena Pantanal · Referee Michelangelo Martins De Almeida Junior, Brazil · Analysis updated 13:38 UTC
Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.97 expected goals for Cuiaba and 0.41 for Ponte Preta, a combined total of 2.39. That distribution gives Cuiaba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 29% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cuiaba win
74.9% probability
Expected goals
1.97 – 0.41
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cuiaba home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ponte Preta away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cuiaba to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 75% / 18% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.97 goals for Cuiaba and 0.41 for Ponte Preta, a combined 2.39 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.2%
- 2–017.9%
- 3–011.8%
- 0–09.2%
- 1–17.5%
Recent form
Cuiaba
- 2026-10-11T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Avai · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-07T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Vila Nova · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Ponte Preta · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T19:00:00.000Z · A vs CRB · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-22T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Nautico Recife · 3-0 (W)
Ponte Preta
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs CRB · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Londrina · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-11T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Sport Recife · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T21:30:00.000Z · H vs São Bernardo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs America Mineiro · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 33 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 61 |
| 2 | Novorizontino | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 31 | 60 |
| 3 | Juventude | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 60 |
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 33 | 15 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 57 |
| 5 | Criciuma | 33 | 16 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 56 |
| 6 | Atletico Goianiense | 33 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 53 |
| 7 | CRB | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 4 | 52 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 33 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 51 |
| 9 | Goias | 33 | 14 | 6 | 13 | -6 | 48 |
| 10 | Operario-PR | 33 | 13 | 9 | 11 | -1 | 48 |
| 11 | Cuiaba | 33 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 47 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 46 |
| 13 | Athletic Club | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 1 | 43 |
| 14 | Nautico Recife | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | -3 | 42 |
| 15 | Ceara | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | -5 | 42 |
| 16 | Botafogo SP | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | -1 | 41 |
| 17 | Avai | 33 | 10 | 6 | 17 | -10 | 36 |
| 18 | Londrina | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | -7 | 29 |
| 19 | America Mineiro | 33 | 4 | 5 | 24 | -33 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 33 | 3 | 4 | 26 | -55 | 13 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cuiaba win, at 74.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 29% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.