Stadion na Banovom brdu · Referee M. Ilic · Analysis updated 15:09 UTC
Cukaricki vs IMT Novi Beograd Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Cukaricki and 1.41 for IMT Novi Beograd, a combined total of 2.36. That distribution gives IMT Novi Beograd the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
IMT Novi Beograd win
47.6% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cukaricki home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
IMT Novi Beograd away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.3%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–09.4%
- 0–29.4%
- 1–09.0%
Recent form
Cukaricki
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Železničar Pančevo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Novi Pazar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Radnik Surdulica · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Vojvodina · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Crvena Zvezda · 0-4 (L)
IMT Novi Beograd
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Vojvodina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Crvena Zvezda · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs OFK Beograd · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Mladost Lucani · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Radnicki 1923 · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-19T17:00:00.000Z · Cukaricki 0-1 IMT Novi Beograd (Super Liga)
- 2025-11-28T16:00:00.000Z · Cukaricki 1-1 IMT Novi Beograd (Super Liga)
- 2025-07-27T18:00:00.000Z · Cukaricki 3-1 IMT Novi Beograd (Super Liga)
- 2025-05-12T16:00:00.000Z · Cukaricki 1-1 IMT Novi Beograd (Super Liga)
- 2025-04-07T16:00:00.000Z · Cukaricki 0-2 IMT Novi Beograd (Super Liga)
- 2024-11-09T14:00:00.000Z · Cukaricki 1-1 IMT Novi Beograd (Super Liga)
- 2023-12-18T17:00:00.000Z · Cukaricki 0-1 IMT Novi Beograd (Super Liga)
- 2023-08-18T16:00:00.000Z · Cukaricki 0-3 IMT Novi Beograd (Super Liga)
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 28 |
| 2 | Vojvodina | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Radnicki 1923 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Mladost Lucani | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 16 |
| 5 | IMT Novi Beograd | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 6 | Železničar Pančevo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Radnik Surdulica | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Novi Pazar | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 | Cukaricki | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 11 |
| 10 | OFK Beograd | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 9 |
| 11 | FK Partizan | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Radnicki NIS | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Macva | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Zemun | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is IMT Novi Beograd win, at 47.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.