· Analysis updated 06:29 UTC
Cultural Leonesa II vs Almazán Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.06 expected goals for Cultural Leonesa II and 0.89 for Almazán, a combined total of 2.96. That distribution gives Cultural Leonesa II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cultural Leonesa II win
64.4% probability
Expected goals
2.06 – 0.89
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cultural Leonesa II home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Almazán away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.1%
- 1–010.7%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.6%
- 3–07.6%
Recent form
Cultural Leonesa II
- 2026-08-14T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Gijón II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Mansillés · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-02T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Tordesillas · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Numancia II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Cristo Atlético · 0-1 (L)
Almazán
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Colegios Diocesanos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Villaralbo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Arandina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Unionistas II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs UD Santa Marta · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-01T16:00:00.000Z · Cultural Leonesa II 0-3 Almazán (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2025-10-19T14:00:00.000Z · Cultural Leonesa II 2-3 Almazán (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2025-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · Cultural Leonesa II 3-0 Almazán (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2024-11-24T15:30:00.000Z · Cultural Leonesa II 2-1 Almazán (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2024-04-06T15:00:00.000Z · Cultural Leonesa II 2-0 Almazán (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2023-11-19T15:30:00.000Z · Cultural Leonesa II 3-3 Almazán (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2023-03-26T15:00:00.000Z · Cultural Leonesa II 0-0 Almazán (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2022-11-27T11:00:00.000Z · Cultural Leonesa II 0-0 Almazán (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2022-02-06T15:30:00.000Z · Cultural Leonesa II 0-2 Almazán (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2021-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · Cultural Leonesa II 2-1 Almazán (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cristo Atlético | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Cultural Leonesa II | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | Burgos Promesas | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 17 |
| 4 | UD Santa Marta | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 5 | Palencia CF | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 6 | Bembibre | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | La Virgen del Camino | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 8 | Guijuelo | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 12 |
| 9 | Atlético Mansillés | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Arandina | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Almazán | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 | Villaralbo | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 13 | Turégano | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | Calasanz de Soria | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 7 |
| 15 | Unionistas II | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 5 |
| 16 | Colegios Diocesanos | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
| 17 | Salamanca II | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Mirandés II | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cultural Leonesa II win, at 64.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.