· Analysis updated 09:17 UTC
Cultural Leonesa vs Real Avilés Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Cultural Leonesa and 1.33 for Real Avilés, a combined total of 2.86. That distribution gives Cultural Leonesa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.8% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cultural Leonesa home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Real Avilés away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cultural Leonesa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 25% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Cultural Leonesa and 1.33 for Real Avilés, a combined 2.86 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–08.7%
- 1–27.8%
- 0–17.6%
Recent form
Cultural Leonesa
- 2026-10-24T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Pontevedra · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs UD Logroñés · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Arenas Getxo · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Unionistas de Salamanca · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs CD Coria · 2-2 (D)
Real Avilés
- 2026-10-24T16:45:00.000Z · H vs UD Logroñés · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T16:15:00.000Z · H vs UD Ourense · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Ponferradina · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Lugo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Barakaldo · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.