Bailey Reserve · Analysis updated 03:28 UTC
Cumberland United vs Adelaide Raiders Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Cumberland United and 1.80 for Adelaide Raiders, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Adelaide Raiders the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Adelaide Raiders win
46.5% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Adelaide Raiders away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Adelaide Raiders to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 31% / 23% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for Cumberland United and 1.80 for Adelaide Raiders, a combined 3.23 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 63% and both teams to score at 63%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 1–29.2%
- 2–17.3%
- 0–17.1%
- 2–26.5%
Recent form
Cumberland United
Adelaide Raiders
- 2026-09-12T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Modbury Jets · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T05:30:00.000Z · H vs Adelaide Blue Eagles · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T05:30:00.000Z · A vs Adelaide Blue Eagles · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Adelaide Olympic · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T10:00:00.000Z · H vs The Cove · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
South Australia State League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide Raiders | 22 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 47 |
| 2 | Modbury Jets | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 26 | 44 |
| 3 | Adelaide Olympic | 22 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 43 |
| 4 | Fulham United | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 37 |
| 5 | Adelaide Blue Eagles | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 36 |
| 6 | Adelaide Victory | 22 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 36 |
| 7 | Cumberland United | 22 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 34 |
| 8 | The Cove | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -7 | 26 |
| 9 | Eastern United | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -19 | 22 |
| 10 | Adelaide Cobras | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | -23 | 20 |
| 11 | Salisbury United | 22 | 5 | 2 | 15 | -20 | 17 |
| 12 | South Adelaide Panthers | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | -36 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Adelaide Raiders win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.