· Analysis updated 11:04 UTC
Cumnock Juniors vs Auchinleck Talbot Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Cumnock Juniors and 1.53 for Auchinleck Talbot, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives Cumnock Juniors the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cumnock Juniors win
48.8% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cumnock Juniors home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Auchinleck Talbot away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cumnock Juniors to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 22% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Cumnock Juniors and 1.53 for Auchinleck Talbot, a combined 3.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.0%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–26.9%
- 2–26.9%
- 3–16.0%
Recent form
Cumnock Juniors
- 2026-10-02T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Auchinleck Talbot · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Auchinleck Talbot · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-23T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Troon FC · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Beith · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dalbeattie Star · 6-1 (W)
Auchinleck Talbot
- 2026-10-02T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Cumnock Juniors · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cumnock Juniors · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Kilwinning Rangers · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Largs Thistle · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Caledonian Braves · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cumnock Juniors win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.