Curico Unido vs Cobreloa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.91 expected goals for Curico Unido and 1.64 for Cobreloa, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Cobreloa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Cobreloa win

54.8% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.91 – 1.64

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Curico Unido home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cobreloa away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cobreloa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 21% / 25% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.91 goals for Curico Unido and 1.64 for Cobreloa, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Curico Unido win21%

Draw25%

Cobreloa win55%

Double chance 1X

45%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

79%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

0–112.8%
1–111.6%
0–210.6%
1–29.6%
0–07.8%

Recent form

Curico Unido

2026-10-03T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Magallanes · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Concepción · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-23T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Concepción · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs San Marcos de Arica · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-08T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Espanola · 2-1 (W)

Cobreloa

2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santiago Wanderers · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-22T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Coquimbo Unido · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-10T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Antofagasta · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-05T21:30:00.000Z · A vs San Luis · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-01T00:00:00.000Z · H vs San Marcos de Arica · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cobreloa	27	13	9	5	16	48
2	San Luis	26	13	8	5	12	47
3	Magallanes	27	13	7	7	5	46
4	Antofagasta	27	12	8	7	21	44
5	Santiago Wanderers	27	12	8	7	12	44
6	Recoleta	27	11	8	8	3	41
7	Deportes Copiapo	27	11	7	9	2	40
8	San Marcos de Arica	27	10	9	8	6	39
9	Union Espanola	26	10	6	10	-2	36
10	Deportes Temuco	27	9	8	10	5	35
11	D. Puerto Montt	26	10	4	12	-8	34
12	Deportes Iquique	26	7	10	9	5	31
13	Curico Unido	27	7	9	11	-16	30
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	27	4	10	13	-14	22
15	Union San Felipe	26	5	7	14	-28	22
16	Rangers de Talca	26	4	6	16	-19	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Cobreloa win, at 54.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.