Estadio Bicentenario La Granja · Referee N. Gamboa · Analysis updated 13:24 UTC
Curico Unido vs Concepción Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.12 expected goals for Curico Unido and 1.57 for Concepción, a combined total of 2.69. That distribution gives Concepción the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Concepción win
47.6% probability
Expected goals
1.12 – 1.57
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Curico Unido home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Concepción away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Concepción to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 27% / 25% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.12 goals for Curico Unido and 1.57 for Concepción, a combined 2.69 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 0–110.7%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–28.3%
- 1–07.6%
Recent form
Curico Unido
- 2026-10-03T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Magallanes · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Concepción · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Concepción · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs San Marcos de Arica · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Espanola · 2-1 (W)
Concepción
- 2026-10-04T18:30:00.000Z · A vs O'Higgins · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-30T23:00:00.000Z · H vs O'Higgins · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Curico Unido · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Curico Unido · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Colo Colo · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Chile table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antofagasta | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 23 |
| 2 | O'Higgins | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 23 |
| 3 | Colo Colo | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 20 |
| 4 | Concepción | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 19 |
| 5 | Coquimbo Unido | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 18 |
| 6 | U. Catolica | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 7 | Universidad de Chile | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 8 | Nublense | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 9 | Union La Calera | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 10 | Deportes Santa Cruz | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 11 | D. Puerto Montt | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 12 | A. Italiano | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 13 | Deportes Iquique | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 14 | Curico Unido | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 15 | Palestino | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 16 | Everton de Vina | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 17 | Deportes Limache | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 18 | Cobreloa | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 19 | Union San Felipe | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 20 | D. La Serena | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 21 | San Luis | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 22 | Huachipato | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 23 | Rangers de Talca | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 24 | Deportes Temuco | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 25 | Recoleta | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 26 | Universidad de Concepcion | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 27 | Union Espanola | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 28 | Deportes Copiapo | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 29 | Santiago Wanderers | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 3 |
| 30 | Cobresal | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 2 |
| 31 | San Marcos de Arica | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 1 |
| 32 | Magallanes | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Concepción win, at 47.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.