Cusco vs ADT Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.97 expected goals for Cusco and 0.92 for ADT, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Cusco the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Cusco win

61.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.97 – 0.92

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Cusco home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
ADT away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cusco to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 21% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.97 goals for Cusco and 0.92 for ADT, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Cusco win62%

Draw21%

ADT win17%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

38%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–010.9%
2–010.7%
1–110.1%
2–19.9%
3–07.1%

Recent form

Cusco

2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Cajamarca · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · H vs FBC Melgar · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T23:00:00.000Z · H vs UCV Moquegua · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Cienciano · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-23T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Garcilaso · 1-4 (L)

ADT

2026-10-16T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Cajamarca · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-01T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Cristal · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-27T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Cristal · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-23T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Cienciano · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	29	18	8	3	29	62
2	Universitario	29	15	8	6	15	53
3	FBC Melgar	29	14	8	7	18	50
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	14	6	9	12	48
5	Cienciano	29	14	5	10	9	47
6	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	29	13	7	9	-8	46
7	Cusco	29	14	3	12	0	45
8	Sporting Cristal	29	13	5	11	11	44
9	Alianza Atletico	29	12	7	10	4	43
10	Sport Huancayo	29	12	5	12	-5	41
11	Sport Boys	29	10	8	11	-1	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	29	10	8	11	-8	38
13	Atletico Grau	29	9	6	14	-7	33
14	Comerciantes Unidos	29	7	10	12	-5	31
15	FC Cajamarca	29	7	7	15	-12	28
16	UCV Moquegua	29	7	7	15	-18	28
17	ADT	29	6	8	15	-14	26
18	UTC Cajamarca	29	4	8	17	-20	15
1	Alianza Lima	17	12	4	1	22	40
2	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	17	10	4	3	4	34
3	Cienciano	17	10	3	4	12	33
4	Universitario	17	8	5	4	9	29
5	FBC Melgar	17	8	4	5	9	28
6	Cusco	17	8	3	6	-3	27
7	Deportivo Garcilaso	17	7	5	5	3	26
8	Alianza Atletico	17	5	6	6	2	21
9	Comerciantes Unidos	17	5	6	6	-2	21
10	ADT	17	5	5	7	1	20
11	Sport Boys	17	5	5	7	-4	20
12	Sporting Cristal	17	5	4	8	-2	19
13	UTC Cajamarca	17	4	6	7	-5	18
14	UCV Moquegua	17	5	3	9	-7	18
15	FC Cajamarca	17	4	5	8	-5	17
16	Atletico Grau	17	4	4	9	-6	16
17	Sport Huancayo	17	4	4	9	-10	16
18	Juan Pablo II College	17	4	4	9	-18	16
1	Sporting Cristal	12	8	1	3	13	25
2	Sport Huancayo	12	8	1	3	5	25
3	Universitario	12	7	3	2	6	24
4	Juan Pablo II College	12	6	4	2	10	22
5	FBC Melgar	12	6	4	2	9	22
6	Deportivo Garcilaso	12	7	1	4	9	22
7	Alianza Lima	12	6	4	2	7	22
8	Alianza Atletico	12	7	1	4	2	22
9	Cusco	12	6	0	6	3	18
10	Sport Boys	12	5	3	4	3	18
11	Atletico Grau	12	5	2	5	-1	17
12	Cienciano	12	4	2	6	-3	14
13	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	12	3	3	6	-12	12
14	FC Cajamarca	12	3	2	7	-7	11
15	Comerciantes Unidos	12	2	4	6	-3	10
16	UCV Moquegua	12	2	4	6	-11	10
17	ADT	12	1	3	8	-15	6
18	UTC Cajamarca	12	0	2	10	-15	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Cusco win, at 61.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.