Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega · Referee Joel Alarcon, Peru · Analysis updated 10:05 UTC
Cusco vs Alianza Atletico Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Cusco and 1.15 for Alianza Atletico, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Cusco the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.1% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cusco home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Alianza Atletico away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cusco to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 27% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Cusco and 1.15 for Alianza Atletico, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–011.1%
- 0–19.4%
- 2–18.6%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
Cusco
- 2026-10-24T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Cristal · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Huancayo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Alianza Lima · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Cajamarca · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · H vs FBC Melgar · 0-1 (L)
Alianza Atletico
- 2026-10-24T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Sport Huancayo · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-18T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Universitario · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Sport Boys · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-06T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Boys · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Boys · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.