Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega · Referee Jordi Espinoza, Peru · Analysis updated 15:33 UTC
Cusco vs FBC Melgar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Cusco and 1.35 for FBC Melgar, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Cusco the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.4% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cusco home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FBC Melgar away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cusco to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 25% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Cusco and 1.35 for FBC Melgar, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–08.7%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–18.0%
- 1–28.0%
Recent form
Cusco
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Cajamarca · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · H vs FBC Melgar · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T23:00:00.000Z · H vs UCV Moquegua · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Cienciano · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Garcilaso · 1-4 (L)
FBC Melgar
- 2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitario · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T01:15:00.000Z · H vs Sport Boys · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Cusco · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T23:30:00.000Z · H vs ADT · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-01T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Grau · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.