Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega · Referee Daniel Ureta, Peru · Analysis updated 15:29 UTC
Cusco vs Juan Pablo II College Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for Cusco and 1.13 for Juan Pablo II College, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives Cusco the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cusco win
59.7% probability
Expected goals
2.10 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cusco home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Juan Pablo II College away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cusco to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 21% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.10 goals for Cusco and 1.13 for Juan Pablo II College, a combined 3.22 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.4%
- 2–08.8%
- 1–08.3%
- 3–16.9%
Recent form
Cusco
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Cajamarca · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · H vs FBC Melgar · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T23:00:00.000Z · H vs UCV Moquegua · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Cienciano · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Garcilaso · 1-4 (L)
Juan Pablo II College
- 2026-09-20T20:30:00.000Z · H vs UCV Moquegua · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs UTC Cajamarca · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Alianza Lima · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-08-22T20:30:00.000Z · H vs ADT · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-14T23:00:00.000Z · Cusco 2-0 Juan Pablo II College (Primera División)
- 2026-03-01T20:30:00.000Z · Cusco 1-2 Juan Pablo II College (Primera División)
- 2025-08-22T20:15:00.000Z · Cusco 0-0 Juan Pablo II College (Primera División)
- 2025-04-06T18:15:00.000Z · Cusco 4-2 Juan Pablo II College (Primera División)
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cusco win, at 59.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.