Cusco vs Sporting Cristal Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Cusco and 1.35 for Sporting Cristal, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Cusco the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.58 – 1.35

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Cusco home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sporting Cristal away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cusco to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 25% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Cusco and 1.35 for Sporting Cristal, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Cusco win43%

Draw25%

Sporting Cristal win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–111.4%
2–19.0%
1–08.5%
1–27.7%
0–17.2%

Recent form

Cusco

2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Cajamarca · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · H vs FBC Melgar · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T23:00:00.000Z · H vs UCV Moquegua · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Cienciano · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-23T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Garcilaso · 1-4 (L)

Sporting Cristal

2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs UTC Cajamarca · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-01T20:00:00.000Z · H vs ADT · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-27T20:15:00.000Z · A vs ADT · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Grau · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs UCV Moquegua · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	28	17	8	3	27	59
2	Universitario	28	14	8	6	12	50
3	Deportivo Garcilaso	28	14	6	8	14	48
4	FBC Melgar	28	13	8	7	16	47
5	Cusco	28	14	3	11	1	45
6	Cienciano	28	13	5	10	8	44
7	Alianza Atletico	28	12	7	9	7	43
8	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	28	12	7	9	-9	43
9	Sporting Cristal	28	12	5	11	9	41
10	Sport Boys	28	10	8	10	1	38
11	Sport Huancayo	28	11	5	12	-6	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	28	9	8	11	-10	35
13	Atletico Grau	28	9	6	13	-5	33
14	Comerciantes Unidos	28	7	10	11	-3	31
15	FC Cajamarca	28	7	7	14	-11	28
16	ADT	28	6	8	14	-13	26
17	UCV Moquegua	28	6	7	15	-19	25
18	UTC Cajamarca	28	4	8	16	-19	15
1	Alianza Lima	17	12	4	1	22	40
2	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	17	10	4	3	4	34
3	Cienciano	17	10	3	4	12	33
4	Universitario	17	8	5	4	9	29
5	FBC Melgar	17	8	4	5	9	28
6	Cusco	17	8	3	6	-3	27
7	Deportivo Garcilaso	17	7	5	5	3	26
8	Alianza Atletico	17	5	6	6	2	21
9	Comerciantes Unidos	17	5	6	6	-2	21
10	ADT	17	5	5	7	1	20
11	Sport Boys	17	5	5	7	-4	20
12	Sporting Cristal	17	5	4	8	-2	19
13	UTC Cajamarca	17	4	6	7	-5	18
14	UCV Moquegua	17	5	3	9	-7	18
15	FC Cajamarca	17	4	5	8	-5	17
16	Atletico Grau	17	4	4	9	-6	16
17	Sport Huancayo	17	4	4	9	-10	16
18	Juan Pablo II College	17	4	4	9	-18	16
1	Sporting Cristal	11	7	1	3	11	22
2	Deportivo Garcilaso	11	7	1	3	11	22
3	Alianza Atletico	11	7	1	3	5	22
4	Sport Huancayo	11	7	1	3	4	22
5	Universitario	11	6	3	2	3	21
6	Juan Pablo II College	11	5	4	2	8	19
7	FBC Melgar	11	5	4	2	7	19
8	Alianza Lima	11	5	4	2	5	19
9	Sport Boys	11	5	3	3	5	18
10	Cusco	11	6	0	5	4	18
11	Atletico Grau	11	5	2	4	1	17
12	Cienciano	11	3	2	6	-4	11
13	FC Cajamarca	11	3	2	6	-6	11
14	Comerciantes Unidos	11	2	4	5	-1	10
15	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	11	2	3	6	-13	9
16	UCV Moquegua	11	1	4	6	-12	7
17	ADT	11	1	3	7	-14	6
18	UTC Cajamarca	11	0	2	9	-14	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.