Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega · Referee D. Ureta · Analysis updated 10:18 UTC
Cusco vs UTC Cajamarca Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Cusco and 0.93 for UTC Cajamarca, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Cusco the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cusco win
55.6% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cusco home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
UTC Cajamarca away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cusco to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 24% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Cusco and 0.93 for UTC Cajamarca, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.3%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–010.5%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.2%
Recent form
Cusco
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Cajamarca · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · H vs FBC Melgar · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T23:00:00.000Z · H vs UCV Moquegua · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Cienciano · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Garcilaso · 1-4 (L)
UTC Cajamarca
- 2026-10-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FBC Melgar · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Cienciano · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Cristal · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Huancayo · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Juan Pablo II College · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cusco win, at 55.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.