· Analysis updated 19:50 UTC
Cyprus vs Montenegro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Cyprus and 1.40 for Montenegro, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Cyprus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.6% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cyprus home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Montenegro away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cyprus to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 25% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Cyprus and 1.40 for Montenegro, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–08.4%
- 1–28.2%
- 0–18.1%
Recent form
Cyprus
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Armenia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Latvia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Montenegro · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Liechtenstein · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Slovenia · 1-1 (D)
Montenegro
- 2026-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Armenia · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cyprus · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Slovakia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-06-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bulgaria · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-03-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovenia · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 2 | Italy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Belgium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 0 |
| 1 | Netherlands | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 2 | Greece | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 3 | Germany | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 4 | Serbia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 0 |
| 1 | Spain | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 2 | England | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 |
| 3 | Croatia | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 3 |
| 4 | Czechia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 0 |
| 1 | Portugal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | Denmark | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Wales | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Norway | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 1 | Switzerland | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 2 | Slovenia | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Scotland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | FYR Macedonia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
| 1 | Northern Ireland | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| 2 | Hungary | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Ukraine | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 4 | Georgia | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 1 | Austria | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| 2 | Kosovo | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 3 | Rep. Of Ireland | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| 4 | Israel | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 1 | Sweden | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 2 | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 3 | Poland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | Romania | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
| 1 | Albania | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Belarus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Finland | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 4 | San Marino | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -15 | 0 |
| 1 | Montenegro | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 2 | Cyprus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Armenia | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Latvia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 1 | Slovakia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Faroe Islands | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Moldova | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 4 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 1 | Iceland | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8 |
| 2 | Estonia | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Bulgaria | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Luxembourg | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 1 | Malta | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 2 | Gibraltar | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 3 | Andorra | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 1 | Azerbaijan | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 2 | Lithuania | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Liechtenstein | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.