· Analysis updated 00:50 UTC
Czarni Połaniec vs Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Czarni Połaniec and 0.86 for Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Czarni Połaniec the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws roughly 43% of the time.
Model pick
Czarni Połaniec to Win
56.8% probability
Expected goals
1.68 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.3%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–011.2%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.9%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Czarni Połaniec to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 24% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Czarni Połaniec and 0.86 for Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 46% and both teams to score at 47%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Model confidence
Czarni Połaniec to Win is the headline pick at 57% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Czarni Połaniec
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
III Liga - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chełmianka Chełm | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Wiślanie Jaśkowice | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Wisłoka Dębica | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | KSZO 1929 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Wisła Kraków II | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Czarni Połaniec | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Naprzód | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Hetman Zamosc | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| 9 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Busko-Zdroj | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | KS Wieczysta Krakow II | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 13 | Moravia Morawica | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 14 | Jarosław | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 15 | Sokół Kolb. | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 16 | Star Starachowice | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 17 | Korona Kielce II | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.