Estadio Banorte · Referee Yael Falcon Perez, Argentina · Analysis updated 13:41 UTC
Czechia vs Mexico Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Czechia and 1.74 for Mexico, a combined total of 2.54. That distribution gives Mexico the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mexico win
59.6% probability
Expected goals
0.80 – 1.74
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Czechia home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mexico to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 17% / 23% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.80 goals for Czechia and 1.74 for Mexico, a combined 2.54 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 47% and both teams to score at 46%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.7%
- 0–211.9%
- 1–111.0%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–07.9%
Recent form
Czechia
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs England · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Spain · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs England · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Croatia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-25T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Mexico · 0-3 (L)
Mexico
- 2026-10-04T02:00:00.000Z · A vs USA · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-30T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Peru · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Colombia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-06T01:00:00.000Z · H vs England · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-07-01T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Ecuador · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
World Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexico | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | South Africa | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | South Korea | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Czechia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 1 | Switzerland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Canada | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 3 | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Qatar | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -8 | 1 |
| 1 | Brazil | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Morocco | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Scotland | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Haiti | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| 1 | USA | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Australia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Paraguay | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 1 | Germany | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 2 | Ivory Coast | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Ecuador | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Curaçao | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -8 | 1 |
| 1 | Netherlands | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Japan | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
| 3 | Sweden | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Tunisia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 0 |
| 1 | Belgium | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
| 2 | Egypt | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 3 | Iran | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | New Zealand | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 1 | Spain | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Cape Verde Islands | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Uruguay | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Saudi Arabia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -4 | 2 |
| 1 | France | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 |
| 2 | Norway | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Senegal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Iraq | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -11 | 0 |
| 1 | Argentina | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Austria | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Algeria | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Jordan | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 1 | Colombia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Portugal | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| 3 | Congo DR | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Uzbekistan | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 |
| 1 | England | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Croatia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Ghana | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Panama | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
| 1 | Congo DR | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Sweden | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Ghana | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Ecuador | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 6 | Algeria | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 7 | Paraguay | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | Senegal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Iran | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | South Korea | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Scotland | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 12 | Uruguay | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mexico win, at 59.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.