Městský stadion (Karviná) · Referee Paweł Raczkowski, Poland · Analysis updated 12:54 UTC
Czechia vs San Marino Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Czechia and 1.22 for San Marino, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Czechia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Czechia win
52.3% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Czechia home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
San Marino away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Czechia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 23% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Czechia and 1.22 for San Marino, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.6%
- 2–08.0%
- 1–26.4%
Recent form
Czechia
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs England · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Spain · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs England · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Croatia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-25T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Mexico · 0-3 (L)
San Marino
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Albania · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Belarus · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Albania · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Finland · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-06-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Azerbaijan · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Czechia win, at 52.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.