Estadio La Portada · Analysis updated 10:36 UTC
D. La Serena vs Antofagasta Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for D. La Serena and 1.03 for Antofagasta, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Antofagasta the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.7% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
D. La Serena home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Antofagasta away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Antofagasta to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 33% / 31% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.98 goals for D. La Serena and 1.03 for Antofagasta, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.9%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–113.5%
- 1–013.2%
- 0–27.1%
Recent form
D. La Serena
- 2026-10-24T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Concepción · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Everton de Vina · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Universidad de Chile · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Nublense · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-31T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Union La Calera · 1-0 (W)
Antofagasta
- 2026-08-23T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Temuco · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Iquique · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-13T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Santiago Wanderers · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-07T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Espanola · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Union San Felipe · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Chile table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antofagasta | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 23 |
| 2 | O'Higgins | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 23 |
| 3 | Colo Colo | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 20 |
| 4 | Concepción | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 19 |
| 5 | Coquimbo Unido | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 18 |
| 6 | U. Catolica | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 7 | Universidad de Chile | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 8 | Nublense | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 9 | Union La Calera | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 10 | Deportes Santa Cruz | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 11 | D. Puerto Montt | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 12 | A. Italiano | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 13 | Deportes Iquique | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 14 | Curico Unido | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 15 | Palestino | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 16 | Everton de Vina | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 17 | Deportes Limache | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 18 | Cobreloa | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 19 | Union San Felipe | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 20 | D. La Serena | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 21 | San Luis | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 22 | Huachipato | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 23 | Rangers de Talca | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 24 | Deportes Temuco | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 25 | Recoleta | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 26 | Universidad de Concepcion | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 27 | Union Espanola | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 28 | Deportes Copiapo | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 29 | Santiago Wanderers | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 3 |
| 30 | Cobresal | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 2 |
| 31 | San Marcos de Arica | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 1 |
| 32 | Magallanes | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.