D. Puerto Montt vs Curico Unido Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for D. Puerto Montt and 1.10 for Curico Unido, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives D. Puerto Montt the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.20 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

D. Puerto Montt home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Curico Unido away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates D. Puerto Montt to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 28% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for D. Puerto Montt and 1.10 for Curico Unido, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

D. Puerto Montt win38%

Draw28%

Curico Unido win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals67%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–113.2%
1–012.0%
0–111.0%
0–010.0%
2–17.9%

Recent form

D. Puerto Montt

2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Copiapo · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-29T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Colo Colo · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Nublense · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-22T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Nublense · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Magallanes · 0-2 (L)

Curico Unido

2026-10-03T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Magallanes · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Concepción · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-23T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Concepción · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs San Marcos de Arica · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-08T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Espanola · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-05T00:30:00.000Z · D. Puerto Montt 2-0 Curico Unido (Primera B)
2026-04-26T00:00:00.000Z · D. Puerto Montt 1-2 Curico Unido (Primera B)

Primera B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cobreloa	29	15	9	5	22	54
2	San Luis	29	15	9	5	14	54
3	Santiago Wanderers	29	14	8	7	16	50
4	Magallanes	29	13	7	9	1	46
5	Antofagasta	28	12	9	7	21	45
6	Recoleta	29	11	9	9	-2	42
7	Deportes Copiapo	29	11	8	10	1	41
8	San Marcos de Arica	28	10	10	8	6	40
9	Union Espanola	29	11	6	12	-3	39
10	Deportes Iquique	29	9	11	9	9	38
11	D. Puerto Montt	29	11	5	13	-7	38
12	Deportes Temuco	28	9	9	10	5	36
13	Curico Unido	28	7	10	11	-16	31
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	29	4	12	13	-14	24
15	Union San Felipe	29	5	8	16	-34	23
16	Rangers de Talca	29	5	6	18	-19	21

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.