Joma Arena · Analysis updated 15:57 UTC
Dacia-Buiucani vs Milsami Orhei Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Dacia-Buiucani and 1.48 for Milsami Orhei, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Dacia-Buiucani the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.5% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dacia-Buiucani home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Milsami Orhei away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dacia-Buiucani to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 24% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for Dacia-Buiucani and 1.48 for Milsami Orhei, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.9%
- 1–07.2%
- 2–26.5%
Recent form
Dacia-Buiucani
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sireți · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Petrocub · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sheriff Tiraspol · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Zimbru · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs CSF Bălți · 3-0 (W)
Milsami Orhei
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sireți · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sheriff Tiraspol · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs CSF Bălți · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dacia-Buiucani · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrocub · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 16 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 29 | 37 |
| 2 | Petrocub | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 29 |
| 3 | Zimbru | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 28 |
| 4 | Dacia-Buiucani | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 24 |
| 5 | Politehnica UTM | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 19 |
| 6 | Milsami Orhei | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | -5 | 19 |
| 7 | Sireți | 16 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -12 | 10 |
| 8 | CSF Bălți | 15 | 1 | 2 | 12 | -39 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.