Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen and 1.23 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Daejeon Citizen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Daejeon Citizen win

56.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.05 – 1.23

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Daejeon Citizen home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gwangju FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Daejeon Citizen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 21% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.05 goals for Daejeon Citizen and 1.23 for Gwangju FC, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Daejeon Citizen win56%

Draw21%

Gwangju FC win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

2–19.7%
1–19.5%
2–07.9%
1–07.8%
3–16.7%

Recent form

Daejeon Citizen

2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Incheon United · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-15T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kyoto Sanga · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Pohang Steelers · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-09T10:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Anyang · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Bucheon FC 1995 · 5-0 (W)

Gwangju FC

2026-09-20T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Jeonbuk Motors · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Anyang · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-09T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Jeju United FC · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-30T10:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Seoul · 2-5 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

K League 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Seoul	31	20	5	6	32	65
2	Ulsan Hyundai FC	31	14	5	12	4	47
3	Gangwon FC	31	11	13	7	10	46
4	Jeju United FC	31	12	10	9	5	46
5	Jeonbuk Motors	31	11	11	9	9	44
6	Daejeon Citizen	31	11	10	10	10	43
7	Incheon United	31	11	9	11	6	42
8	FC Anyang	31	10	11	10	-8	41
9	Pohang Steelers	31	11	7	13	-9	40
10	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	31	5	18	8	-7	33
11	Bucheon FC 1995	31	7	11	13	-11	32
12	Gwangju FC	31	2	12	17	-41	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Daejeon Citizen win, at 56.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.