Daejeon Citizen vs Pohang Steelers Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen and 1.03 for Pohang Steelers, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Daejeon Citizen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Daejeon Citizen win

51.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.63 – 1.03

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Daejeon Citizen home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pohang Steelers away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Daejeon Citizen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 25% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Daejeon Citizen and 1.03 for Pohang Steelers, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Daejeon Citizen win51%

Draw25%

Pohang Steelers win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–111.8%
1–011.5%
2–19.6%
2–09.3%
0–17.2%

Recent form

Daejeon Citizen

2026-10-24T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-18T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Gwangju FC · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs SHANGHAI SIPG · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-09T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Jeonbuk Motors · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Incheon United · 1-1 (D)

Pohang Steelers

2026-10-09T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Incheon United · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Seoul · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-15T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Beijing Guoan · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Daejeon Citizen · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-09T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

K League 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Seoul	33	20	7	6	32	67
2	Ulsan Hyundai FC	33	15	6	12	5	51
3	Daejeon Citizen	33	13	10	10	12	49
4	Jeonbuk Motors	33	12	12	9	10	48
5	Gangwon FC	33	11	15	7	10	48
6	Incheon United	33	12	10	11	8	46
7	Jeju United FC	33	12	10	11	2	46
8	FC Anyang	33	10	13	10	-8	43
9	Pohang Steelers	33	11	9	13	-9	42
10	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	33	5	19	9	-8	34
11	Bucheon FC 1995	33	7	11	15	-15	32
12	Gwangju FC	33	3	12	18	-39	21

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Daejeon Citizen win, at 51.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.