Victoria Road · Analysis updated 03:47 UTC
Dagenham & Redbridge vs Hampton & Richmond Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Dagenham & Redbridge and 0.79 for Hampton & Richmond, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Dagenham & Redbridge the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dagenham & Redbridge win
60.5% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 0.79
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dagenham & Redbridge home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hampton & Richmond away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dagenham & Redbridge to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 23% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Dagenham & Redbridge and 0.79 for Hampton & Richmond, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.7%
- 2–012.1%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 54.8% vs market 46.7%, edge +8.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.00 | 46.7% | 54.8% | 1.82 | +8.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.40 | 39.1% | 39.6% | 2.53 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 1.50 | 60.3% | 60.5% | 1.65 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 5.50 | 16.5% | 16.5% | 6.06 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.0% | 77.0% | 1.30 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.90 | 23.2% | 23.1% | 4.33 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.12 | 83.9% | 83.6% | 1.20 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 53.3% | 45.2% | 2.21 | -8.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Dagenham & Redbridge
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chesham United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Farnborough · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hemel Hempstead Town · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Brentwood Town · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hampton & Richmond · 1-0 (W)
Hampton & Richmond
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ebbsfleet United · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dagenham & Redbridge · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Crowborough Athletic · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Crowborough Athletic · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelmsford City · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · Dagenham & Redbridge 1-0 Hampton & Richmond (National League - South)
- 2026-03-28T15:00:00.000Z · Dagenham & Redbridge 3-1 Hampton & Richmond (National League - South)
- 2025-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · Dagenham & Redbridge 1-2 Hampton & Richmond (National League - South)
National League - South table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maidstone Utd | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 26 |
| 2 | Ebbsfleet United | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 20 | 25 |
| 3 | Truro City | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 24 |
| 4 | Dagenham & Redbridge | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 23 |
| 5 | Salisbury | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 22 |
| 6 | Billericay Town | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 7 | Tonbridge Angels | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 21 |
| 8 | Dorking Wanderers | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 |
| 9 | Farnham Town | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 20 |
| 10 | Folkestone Invicta | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 11 | Dover | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 19 |
| 12 | Weston-super-Mare | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 13 | Horsham | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 14 | Torquay | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 15 | Chelmsford City | 11 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 15 |
| 16 | Hemel Hempstead Town | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 17 | Farnborough | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 14 |
| 18 | Maidenhead | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -5 | 13 |
| 19 | AFC Totton | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 13 |
| 20 | Chesham United | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -10 | 10 |
| 21 | Braintree | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -15 | 10 |
| 22 | Hampton & Richmond | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -16 | 8 |
| 23 | Walton & Hersham | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -18 | 8 |
| 24 | Slough Town | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | -21 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dagenham & Redbridge win, at 60.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.