Thuwunna Stadium · Analysis updated 06:43 UTC
Dagon vs Hantharwady United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.54 expected goals for Dagon and 0.96 for Hantharwady United, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Dagon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dagon win
71.4% probability
Expected goals
2.54 – 0.96
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dagon home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hantharwady United away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dagon to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 16% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.54 goals for Dagon and 0.96 for Hantharwady United, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
29%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.7%
- 2–19.4%
- 3–08.2%
- 3–17.9%
- 1–07.7%
Recent form
Dagon
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Ayeyawady United · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Hantharwady United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-18T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Yangon United · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-03-09T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Thitsar Arman · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-03-03T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Sagaing United · 1-0 (W)
Hantharwady United
- 2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Yadanarbon · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Shan United · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Thitsar Arman · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Dagon · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-03-18T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Shan United · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dagon | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 10 |
| 2 | Yangon Royals | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 3 | Shan United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 4 | Yadanarbon | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Yangon United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Thitsar Arman | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | I.S.P.E | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | Sagaing United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 9 | Hantharwady United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 10 | Ayeyawady United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 3 |
| 11 | GFA | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 12 | Myawady | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dagon win, at 71.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.