Thuwunna Stadium · Analysis updated 13:35 UTC
Dagon vs Yadanarbon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.82 expected goals for Dagon and 1.32 for Yadanarbon, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Dagon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Dagon win
49.1% probability
Expected goals
1.82 – 1.32
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dagon home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Yadanarbon away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–07.8%
- 2–07.1%
- 1–26.9%
Recent form
Dagon
- 2026-10-25T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Thitsar Arman · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Sagaing United · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-09T09:00:00.000Z · A vs I.S.P.E · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Ayeyawady United · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Hantharwady United · 2-0 (W)
Yadanarbon
- 2026-09-04T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Yangon Royals · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-28T09:00:00.000Z · A vs GFA · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-03-16T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Dagon Port · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-10T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Yangon United · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-03-05T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Ayeyawady United · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-19T09:00:00.000Z · Dagon 2-1 Yadanarbon (National League)
- 2025-12-30T09:00:00.000Z · Dagon 2-2 Yadanarbon (National League)
- 2025-02-18T09:30:00.000Z · Dagon 2-4 Yadanarbon (National League)
- 2024-08-24T09:30:00.000Z · Dagon 1-1 Yadanarbon (National League)
- 2023-07-29T09:30:00.000Z · Dagon 2-1 Yadanarbon (National League)
- 2023-03-16T09:30:00.000Z · Dagon 1-2 Yadanarbon (National League)
- 2019-08-10T09:30:00.000Z · Dagon 2-5 Yadanarbon (National League)
- 2019-03-30T09:30:00.000Z · Dagon 0-1 Yadanarbon (National League)
National League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yangon Royals | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| 2 | Dagon | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 10 |
| 3 | Yadanarbon | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 4 | Shan United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 5 | Yangon United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Thitsar Arman | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | I.S.P.E | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | Hantharwady United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 9 | Sagaing United | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 10 | Ayeyawady United | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 3 |
| 11 | GFA | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 12 | Myawady | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dagon win, at 49.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.